Hi, Brian here. I am an interactive designer who works with Rui and I've been having fun with some of the Express Entry data. Today we'd like to share some of our speculative findings with you in a theoretical light.
Keep in mind that this post is not in any way legal advice, but merely a statistical extrapolation of the possible draws to come.
Express Entry Draw 1 - 886 points / 779 people - Jan 31, 2015
Express Entry Draw 2 - 818 points / 779 people - Feb 7, 2015
Express Entry Draw 3 - 808 points** / 849 people - Feb 20, 2015
Using this existing data for the Express Entry points system, although we only have three draws to date, here is a rudimentary extrapolation of the existing data to give some insight into the following three draws. Please keep in mind that the data is not a guarantee of what the next draws will deliver; indeed they very well may be radically different.
The first three Express Entry draws were held on January 30th, February 7th and February 20th. We are projecting an estimated three more draws on or around March 5th, 16th and 30th. The only information we have guiding the dates of the draws are the current dates plus CIC's indication they intend to draw a total of 25 draws in 2015. They may choose to hold off and draw more later in the year.
The trend accenting the existing three draws to date suggest the downward arc of the required CRA points from 886 to 808. We predict the next few draws in the high 700's for points, still well within the need to hold an LMIA or PNP for your successful Express Entry application.
The trend within the number of invitees to the program was 779 for both first two draws, then jumped to 849 for the third. We are predicting a slow climb upwards as the draws continue. However it may level out at a certain number.
Once more draws are complete, we will be able to provide more accurate extrapolation for your consideration.
* - Guesstimated dates
** - CEC only